• Bear Market Valuations

Investment Update #1 (March 2019)

A summary of returns after releasing our first set of public-facing articles, as well as a bit of background on BMV's raison d'être.

Note: Returns can be influenced by a number of unconsidered internal or market factors, and may not provide a fair evaluation of BMV's valuation ability or performance. These are simply our 1 month returns based on our public signals, with additional benchmarks added for further transparency. We look forward to providing longer-term returns.

To date, assets with positive BMV signals have outperformed.

To feel comfortable making a statement of this nature, we have created a number of benchmarks against which to compare our signals. We are in the business of achieving relative outperformance through deep due diligence - not diversified bets on asset classes that is commonly referenced in current portfolio theory.

To help digest the below chart, you'll see two types of benchmarks (1) Bitcoin's performance and (2) other Exchange Token performance over the last month. We chose BTC as we believe it's performance is heavily correlated to the broader set of cryptocurrencies, and we chose other exchange tokens to understand the specific relative performance of our signals against their competitive set.

Our key takeaways include:

(1) Exchange tokens overall are outperforming BTC. Despite recent appreciation, we continue to hold that exchange tokens are the most compelling areas of opportunity.

(2) While Qash / LQC is converging towards our price floor, it still has considerable room for appreciation. While our original price floor was the $0.32 pictured above, BMV has revised this target upwards to $0.67 USD (As of March 20th, 2019 - unpublished).

(3) BNB has outperformed BTC, but relatively under-performed most other major exchange tokens. A low price floor may not mean over-valuation, as there is considerable speculative value associated with BNB.

As always, prices may have shifted since this snapshot was taken.

A quick update on BMV's raison d'être (mixed with a small rant).

Bear Market Valuations was founded (in part) as a reaction to the overwhelming number of corrupt and / or willfully blind players in this market. Even seemingly innocuous sources (such as CoinMarketCap) at best fail to protect consumers of their data, and at worst collude with bad actors (pasting themselves with bitconnect ads...really?). Please interpret all data and opinions carefully. A good example from this week is the pure garbage that is CMC's addition of flipside letter grades.

While we are not a trading group, we have noticed prominent traders frequently delete signals that under-perform. As part of our mission is to increase transparency in this space, we will never delete historical articles or price predictions, unless we believe they are causing undo harm.

Finally, we have heard that our anonymous nature tends to reduce our credibility. We listen, and will have some members come forward to be public-facing shortly.


As always, we want to caveat that any opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s), and are not financial advice. Please take personal responsibility for yourself and your actions.

Our authors trust their own research, and own positions in some of the covered assets. Please do your own research to corroborate our findings. For our full disclaimer, please see HERE.

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